Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
